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Financial Market Insights
Timely commentary on markets, the economy, and what it means for long-term investors — written by Vann Equity Management.
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36 articles
Financial Market Insight
The six-week rally has real fundamental support — strong earnings and resilient growth — but three risks could still change the outlook: stagflation, a forced Fed rate hike, and a slowdown in the AI boom.
Financial Market Insight
Our immediate take on what the U.S./Iran conflict means for markets — plus an important week of economic data, the two sources of AI anxiety, and monitoring private credit risk through credit spreads.
Financial Market Insight
How AI turned from a tailwind into a headwind — the three 'AI problems' driving the volatility, a Goldilocks read on the latest economic data, and the most important industry to watch right now.
Financial Market Insight
Technical View: The January rally to record highs shifted the technical outlook from cautious to bullish, albeit with only moderate conviction given momentum…
Financial Market Insight
Technical View: The trend in the S&P 500 has shifted back to cautiously bullish as the index continues to grind to record all-time highs.
Financial Market Insight
Technical View: The trend in the S&P 500 has shifted back to cautiously bullish as the index continues to grind to new record highs.
Financial Market Insight
“August 2025 Investment Insights: Inflation, Fed Rate Cuts, Commodities, and the Future of AI”
Financial Market Insight
Navigating uncertainty with discipline as tariff threats escalate: the July Market Multiple Table on whether the good news is all priced in, key themes we're watching, this week's economic data, and a Bitcoin & Crypto update.
Financial Market Insight
Tariffs remain in legal limbo after a court stay, while the “TACO trade” and early credit-spread deterioration take center stage for markets.
Financial Market Insight
At the time of writing this, Monday morning Futures are sharply lower again (down close to 2%) as there was no meaningful tariff relief over the weekend while…
Financial Market Insight
Stocks tumbled and turned negative year to date following the imposition — and then delay — of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, but fear is driving this sell-off, not actual bad economic data.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rebounded last week thanks to better-than-feared CPI/PPI data that eased worries the Fed was about to pause rate cuts.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks surged following more Goldilocks economic data and the Republican sweep in the election, which will result in more pro-growth economic policies — strengthening the bullish thesis for 2024.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks declined modestly last week as Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs while earnings results were a bit more mixed, although the declines were modest…
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied and the S&P 500 climbed close to previous all-time highs thanks to solid tech earnings from ORCL and increased expectations for a 50-bps…
Financial Market Insight
The week of August 5, 2024, begins with a major global market sell-off following the Bank of Japan's decision to tighten monetary policy.
Financial Market Insight
The S&P 500 hit yet another record high last week as CPI rose less than expected and boosted investor expectations for a September rate cut.
Financial Market Insight
The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week thanks to more AI enthusiasm and mostly Goldilocks economic data — but bad economic data becoming bad for stocks remains the key risk to watch.
Financial Market Insight
The S&P 500 declined last week as June rate cut expectations plunged following the hotter-than-expected CPI report and as Treasury yields surged to…
Financial Market Insight
The Fed's March decision kept three rate cuts penciled in for 2024 and upgraded its growth outlook, reinforcing the market's soft-landing narrative — plus what the Bitcoin 'halving' means for investors.
Financial Market Insight
The S&P 500 accelerated to new all-time highs thanks to the Fed upgrading its outlook for economic growth this year (and inflation expectations) while…
Financial Market Insight
Equities started the year on a cautious note, as investors digested the significant gains from the end of 2023 and recalibrated expectations for the Federal…
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied on dovish Fed comments as yields plunged; VEM weighs the 2024 bull and bear cases, warning falling yields may also signal slowing growth.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied hard as Powell signaled the Fed is likely done hiking and Treasury borrowing needs came in lighter than feared, but growth data is now the key swing factor to watch.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks held near YTD highs as Goldilocks data and an as-expected Fed hike kept the rally's three pillars intact, while Dow Theory turned bullish in July.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied to fresh multi-month highs on further disinflation, pushing the S&P 500 near 4,400 — but valuations now price in a lot of good news and little room for negative surprises.
Financial Market Insight
VEM argues 2023 index gains reflect a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, not broad strength; falling rates signal a weakening economy, and the firm stays bearish.
Financial Market Insight
SVB and Signature Bank failures prompted a Fed backstop; VEM says it's a risk but not yet a bearish gamechanger, with this week's CPI report the next key test.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied as Fed fears eased and the S&P 500 topped 4,000, but the Investment Committee warns valuations already price in more than the facts support.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks rallied on hopes of smaller Fed rate hikes and better-than-feared earnings, but VEM views this as a Bear Market Rally, not yet a true Fed pivot.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks slid to fresh 2022 lows after a hawkish Fed decision and UK bond-market turmoil; VEM assesses how bad the selloff could get and what could stop it.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks fell to fresh 2022 lows after the Fed's 75-bps hike, but VEM sees a possible bottom near 3,450-3,680 as three key catalysts play out.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks dropped on hawkish Fed rhetoric and stagflation fears, while surging long-term bond yields hint markets doubt the Fed can tame inflation.
Financial Market Insight
As the Russia/Ukraine war escalates and commodity prices surge, stocks hold a Hold stance in the 4,300-4,600 range while risks of a stagflation-driven downside grow.
Financial Market Insight
Markets stayed volatile as Russia recognized two breakaway Ukrainian regions; Fed policy and slowing growth, not geopolitics, remain the market's key driver.
Financial Market Insight
Stocks are due for a bounce after a volatile January, but with the Fed set to keep hiking rates, the S&P 500's relief rally shouldn't be mistaken for an end to volatility.
